* See also: InstaTrade trading indicators for SOL

After yesterday's active rally, Bitcoin and the major altcoins are drifting today, trading around Wednesday's close into the start of the US session.

While traditional markets wobble and the dollar strengthens to multi-month highs, the leading cryptocurrency has not only held key levels but also climbed above 73,000.00, reclaiming some of its role as a digital safe haven in periods of turbulence, as we noted in yesterday's review, "Crypto Market (BTC): Recovery Despite the Geopolitical Storm."

Major altcoins among the top ten have followed Bitcoin's lead.

SOL/USD reached a four-week high on Wednesday (since 5 February) above 94.05 and is holding near Wednesday's close around 92.30.

The situation around Solana mirrors the broader crypto market, which finds itself at the epicenter of opposing forces: on one side, the escalation of the Middle East conflict and a firmer dollar; on the other, institutional optimism and regulatory progress in the United States.

Pressure from macroeconomic data

The sector continues to feel the effects of the US–Iran escalation, after which investors, fearing a global slowdown from higher energy costs, have shifted capital into safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. The dollar is further supported by Fed rhetoric that may delay monetary easing while inflation remains above targets and by positive macro releases published this week.

One key data point was Automatic Data Processing's (ADP) report that private-sector payrolls rose by 63,000 in February, well above January's 11,000 and beating the 50,000 consensus.

Another upside driver was the ISM services index, which rose to 56.1 from 53.8 a month earlier, outperforming economists' expectations of about 53.5.

Improving economic conditions and rising activity confirm a sustained recovery in the US economy, supporting the strength of the American currency. However, markets remain cautious about further shifts in Federal Reserve policy; despite President Donald Trump's calls for rate cuts, most analysts expect the Fed to keep policy unchanged at least through the summer.

Today, the market expects a new batch of important data—the US Department of Labor plans to publish (at 13:30 GMT) weekly initial jobless claims statistics. Expectations for this indicator will play a key role in the dollar's direction through Friday, when monthly US labor market data for February will be released at 13:30 GMT, affecting dollar pairs including SOL/USD.

Strong NFP data would intensify expectations that policy will remain tight, whereas weak figures could strengthen arguments for rate cuts and potentially boost demand for risk assets.

Institutional support for SOL

Despite the geopolitical storm, institutional demand for Solana remains resilient. SoSoValue data shows that spot SOL ETFs recorded inflows of $1.03 million on Tuesday, following inflows of $17.41 million the day before—$18.44 million in total for the week. The inflow trend continues: $44.44 million was recorded in the previous week, the largest weekly inflow since mid-January.

On the derivatives side, funding rates have moved into positive territory—0.0008%—which points to bullish sentiment and investors' willingness to pay to hold long positions.

Regulatory breakthrough: Trump factor and CLARITY

Downward pressure on crypto prices is being countered by market hopes that the CLARITY Act, a US crypto market structure bill, will be adopted. President Donald Trump yesterday expressed support for the bill, calling it necessary for the industry's development.

That statement materially increased the odds that Congress could pass the bill by late summer 2026, market participants say. Approval could serve as the catalyst the industry needs for a renewed rally. In their view, CLARITY's passage could provide the impulse digital asset markets require to resume growth.

The positive expectations are already visible: over the past three sessions, Bitcoin ETF balances rose by $1.145 billion, and the fear and greed index climbed to 29 (out of 100), though it remains in the fear zone. In February, spot Solana ETF inflows in the US amounted to $63 million, bringing total inflows to $934 million, according to public sources.

Outlook: inflection point or bull trap?

Bull arguments

Leading crypto analysts believe the industry may be at an inflection point. They argue that roughly a 44% decline in crypto markets from 10 October to 28 February could mark the end of the latest drawdown and that recent developments—Trump's support, Kraken gaining access to a Fed account, and Coinbase being named co-custodian by banking giant Morgan Stanley—have significantly improved sentiment and strengthened blockchain fundamentals over the long term.

Some analysts also note that Bitcoin has displayed defensive characteristics during crises, positioning it as a flexible, albeit high-risk, alternative to traditional safe havens as gold's appeal temporarily softens.

Bull-trap risks

At the same time, the current rally could be a classic bull trap—a short-lived breakout that attracts buyers before a subsequent reversal to the downside.

A comparable situation occurred in 2022, when prices rose and then plunged sharply. In that scenario, investors buy into strength only to be swept out by a following sell-off that drags the price lower.

Conclusion

Solana and the crypto market as a whole stand at a critical crossroads. Geopolitical tension and a stronger dollar continue to exert pressure, but institutional flows and regulatory progress provide fundamental support.

The key zone 86.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) – 98.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart for SOL/USD) will be decisive in the coming days: holding above 91.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and breaking 98.00 would open the way to test 100.00 and then 105.00–108.00. A break below 86.00 could deepen the correction to 80.00–77.00 with a risk of further declines (see SOL/USD: scenario dynamics for 05.03.2026).

The market is waiting for an external catalyst—the outcome of the CLARITY vote, US inflation data, or developments in geopolitics. Under any scenario, volatility will remain high, and investors should exercise caution, viewing current levels as a strategic choice zone for direction rather than as a point for aggressive bets.

+ Open a trading account

+ register for the signal-copying system

+ invest in the PAMM system