Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1544 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.1568 and even exceeded it.

Recently, the euro has shown noticeable strengthening, supported by positive data. The latest PMI report allowed buyers to return to the market, albeit temporarily.

In the second half of the day, market participants' attention will be focused on several key macroeconomic reports that could significantly influence further movement. The main event will be the release of the weekly ADP employment change data. Sustained job growth typically signals economic strength, while a slowdown may indicate potential difficulties. Alongside employment data, figures on durable goods orders will also be released. Growth in orders indicates increasing demand for products, which positively impacts the outlook for the manufacturing sector and may support economic growth—ultimately strengthening the dollar.

However, even greater attention will be paid to statements by Trump regarding the Middle East and the war with Iran. It is worth noting that the ultimatum has already expired, and no action has been taken by the United States.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1577 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1625. At 1.1625, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry. Growth in the euro today is likely only after weak US labor market data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1552 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1577 and 1.1625 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.1552 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1507, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1577 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1552 and 1.1507 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.