Trade analysis and trading advice for the European currency

A test of the 1.1741 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

In the near future, U.S. PMI readings for the manufacturing and services sectors will be released, along with data on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. These indicators are important for understanding the current economic situation in the United States and determining potential development scenarios. The Manufacturing PMI serves as an indicator of the state of the industrial sector, and a reading above 50 indicates expanding activity, which can support the dollar. A similar situation applies to the Services PMI, which is an important tool for assessing conditions in the largest sector of the U.S. economy. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a widely recognized measure of consumer confidence, reflecting optimism or pessimism among U.S. households. High readings stimulate spending and economic growth, while low readings signal a possible reduction in consumer spending. If all these indicators come in strong, demand for the dollar may quickly return.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the level around 1.1745 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.1765. At the 1.1765 level, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected only after weak economic data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1730 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1745 and 1.1765 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1730 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1707, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return if strong economic data are released.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1745 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1730 and 1.1707 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to focus on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.