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15.12.2025 12:50 AM
Many market participants viewed the week as an important test for the dollar. Essentially, it was a test. However, it did not hinge solely on the Federal Reserve meeting and the easily predictable interest rate decision. Instead, it was about the market's reaction itself. Recall that after the last two rounds of monetary policy easing, new downward waves followed. A downward wave in instruments like EUR/USD (or GBP/USD) means a strengthening of the U.S. currency. Therefore, if we had observed a new decline in both instruments on Wednesday and Thursday, it would have been clear that the market continues to play by its own rules. This time, however, demand for the U.S. dollar decreased. Not significantly, but the U.S. currency has been falling for three weeks, which corresponds to the current wave pattern.
Next week, a vast amount of important data will be released, and not just in the U.S. However, in this review, I will focus on those reports that the market has been eager to see for over two months. These are the Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and the consumer price index for November.
So, starting with Nonfarm Payrolls. It remains unclear whether the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has gathered all necessary information, and forecasts for this indicator are very vague. Thus, it is absolutely impossible to state with confidence whether the labor market has recovered even slightly. For October, a figure of +55,000 new jobs is anticipated, with expectations for November ranging from 25,000 to 35,000. These numbers may be easily exceeded, but only if the labor market has begun to recover.
Unemployment Rate: According to some forecasts, it may rise to 4.6%, though the consensus opinion is more optimistic at 4.4%, the same as two months prior. If the unemployment rate increases in November, even the most positive payroll figure will not matter. What difference does it make how many new jobs were created if unemployment is rising?
Consumer Price Index: According to some data, it may rise to 3.2%, while other sources project it to remain at 3.0% year-on-year. As we can see, analysts' and market opinions vary, which is not surprising given the lack of data in recent months. Therefore, traders can expect more than one surprise next week, and the dollar could either rise significantly or continue its decline (which seems more likely).
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the U.S. dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may stretch up to the 25th figure. The current upward wave formation is beginning to gain traction, and I hope we are witnessing the formation of an impulse wave structure within global wave 5. Thus, we should expect growth to continue right up to the 25th figure, as I mentioned earlier.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward impulse trend segment, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward correction structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 shows a completed look, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its construction with initial targets around the 38th and 40th figures.
In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c continues its formation, and the current wave set is beginning to take on an impulsive appearance. Therefore, one can expect continued price increases with targets around 1.3580 and 1.3630.
