Lihat juga
11.03.2026 12:21 AM
The war in the Middle East could prove to be very costly for Trump. In the last year, the American president has been walking on very thin ice. American voters are slowly realizing they made the wrong choice a year and a half ago, which means the Democrats are likely to win the upcoming November elections. If the Democrats gain control of at least one Chamber, it will significantly complicate Trump's life. At the very least, he will no longer be able to make all key decisions unilaterally.
Let's recall that, by various estimates, Trump's approval ratings range between 27% and 35%. American consumers are extremely dissatisfied with the consequences of the trade war, immigration policy, new laws, and conflicts with half the countries in the world that were friendly to America and Americans not long ago. The war in Iran could further sink the ratings of Trump and JD Vance.
Firstly, most American voters do not understand why a war in Iran was necessary and what it has brought to America and the American people. Has the nuclear threat been eliminated? Iran has possessed it for many years but has never sought to strike Europe or the U.S. Was Ali Khamenei killed? So what if now his son, with the same political views, becomes the Supreme Leader of Iran?
Americans, like any other ordinary citizens of their country, are primarily concerned with pressing issues, such as their standard of living. The standard of living under Trump has noticeably declined, prices have risen, and various social and healthcare programs have been cut. Additionally, due to Trump's military aggression in Iran, the entire world has faced rising prices for gasoline, oil, and gas, which will inevitably lead to increased costs for all goods and services. Why should Americans be pleased with this situation?
The price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. rose by $0.50 in just one week. On Friday, the U.S. labor market saw a decline of nearly 100,000 jobs. Economic growth slowed to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, and unemployment rose to 4.4% in February. What is there to be happy about?
Economists are once again talking about a recession, while ordinary citizens note that gasoline prices are rising, as are prices for goods and services, not due to external factors but because America started a military campaign in Iran. Political analysts predict that Trump's party will be defeated in the upcoming elections. This may even be good for America and the U.S. dollar. However, we are still far from that.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current trend section may extend up to the 25th figure. At this moment, I believe the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect price increases in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e could be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is now prudent to look for areas and levels for new purchases with targets positioned around 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci levels.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument appears quite clear. The global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form than it currently has. I believe that the formation of the corrective wave structure may soon be complete (or may have already been completed), after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can advise looking for opportunities for new purchases with targets positioned above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Donald Trump, the British pound has every chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, and the upward trend does not appear to be over.
