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23.03.2026 12:47 AMThe economic calendar for the upcoming week is not filled with significant events, but secondary reports may "highlight" key outcomes from the past week, when the Fed and the ECB held meetings.
Additionally, the geopolitical situation, particularly the escalating tensions in the Middle East, will again be in focus for EUR/USD traders.
The economic calendar for Monday is almost empty for the EUR/USD pair. The only point of interest is the Eurozone consumer confidence index, which is based on a survey of households' confidence in the current economic situation and future developments. This index has long been in negative territory but has shown an upward trend over the last three months, "rising" to -12.2 in February. However, pessimistic expectations are expected to further strengthen in March, with forecasts suggesting a drop to -15.0. Given the negative trend in the ZEW indices, this indicator is expected to remain in the "red zone," reflecting weakened consumer confidence.
The Middle Eastern agenda will also draw traders' attention, as market participants react to events and statements made over the weekend. Unfortunately, the wheel of a large-scale conflict continues to spin and expand. In particular, media reports speak of massive attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities in Bushehr and Natanz. In response, Iran has launched ballistic missiles at Israeli cities, with serious consequences reported in the cities of Arad and Dimona (where, by the way, a nuclear research center is located).
Furthermore, Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum to unblock the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, threatening strikes on Iran's entire energy infrastructure (the formal deadline for this ultimatum expires on March 23 at 7:44 PM Eastern Time). In response, Iran's military has threatened to attack all energy infrastructure related to the US and Israel in the Middle East, including desalination facilities and IT infrastructure.
In other words, events in the Middle East are following an escalation scenario, so the dollar is likely to see increased demand as a safe-haven asset again next week.
Tuesday will be "PMI Day." PMI data is expected to reflect a deterioration in business sentiment in key European countries. For example, the German manufacturing PMI is set to fall back into contraction territory (49.8) after two months of active growth at 50.9. The services sector index is expected to remain above the 50-point mark but demonstrate negative dynamics, decreasing from 53.5 to 52.5. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is forecasted to decline to 49.5 from its previous value of 50.8. The Eurozone services sector business activity index may closely approach the "red zone," landing at 50.8.
As we can see, the forecast is quite weak, so if all components of the report are released in the "red zone," the euro will come under significant pressure amid growing stagflation risks.
In the US, the March manufacturing business activity index will also be published, and positive dynamics are expected here. According to forecasts, the indicator will stand at 52.5, reaching its highest level since October of last year. Additionally, the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index, which is also expected to show upward dynamics, will be released. Since March of last year, this indicator has been in negative territory, but it is forecasted to "rise" from -10 to -5 points.
On Wednesday, Germany's IFO indices will be published. Given the sharp decline in the ZEW indices, market participants expect a further deterioration in these indicators, even though the IFO indices are more inertial (i.e., a dramatic drop is unlikely). The business climate index is expected to decrease to 86.3 in March from the previous value of 88.6. The current situation index is also anticipated to show a downward trend, falling to 84.1 (from the previous value of 86.7). Finally, the economic expectations index is expected to weaken to 87.4 (February's value was 90.5).
The weak ZEW indices have signaled a deterioration in expectations (the survey is conducted among financial analysts and investors). However, if the IFO (which surveys real businesses) proves to be resilient, the market may interpret this as a sign that the negativity is more about sentiment than the real economy. Such a result could support the euro. However, if the IFO indices drop more than expected, the euro will come under significant pressure.
In the US, the import price index will be published, which is one of the inflation indicators. According to forecasts, the index is expected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month in February (as it did in the previous month), indicating a moderate increase in imported inflation. However, considering that the February report does not account for March events (the war in the Middle East and the energy crisis), it can be assumed that EUR/USD traders will ignore this release.
During the European trading session on Thursday, the GfK consumer climate leading index will be published in Germany, which is also expected to show negative dynamics, dropping to -28.6. This trend indicates an increase in Germans' savings sentiment amid high geopolitical uncertainty.
Traders may also be interested in the Bundesbank's monthly report. Hawkish tones in the document could support the euro, but this report typically has a weak influence on the EUR/USD pair.
However, during the American session on Thursday, the Unemployment Claims report will be released. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims decreased to 205,000. This week, this figure is expected to rise to 211,000, which is acceptable for the greenback. It is important for dollar bulls that this number does not exceed 230,000.
On Friday, March 27, all attention will be focused on the inflation expectations indicator for the year, calculated by the University of Michigan. If inflation expectations strengthen again, this result will add to the fundamental picture for the greenback against the backdrop of accelerating PCE/PPI and stagnating CPI.
Additionally, on Friday, the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan will be published. According to forecasts, this month's index is expected to reach 55.5. A more significant decline would put downward pressure on the US currency.
Despite the impulsive growth, the EUR/USD pair remains positioned between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart and below the Kumo cloud, indicating the unreliability of long positions. The price is also situated between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. It is advisable to use corrective price spikes as an opportunity to open short positions with targets at 1.1530 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe), 1.1500 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on H4), and 1.1470 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart).
