Analysis of Friday's Trades:

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair traded higher, with no local catalysts. However, the day before, the British pound declined significantly, for which there were objectively few reasons. Yes, the results of the Bank of England meeting can be considered "conditionally dovish," but therein lies the point—conditionally. The key rate remained unchanged, and at the next meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee will vote again on the rate based on new inflation reports. Thus, we do not believe that the BoE is currently more "dovish" than the market perceives it to be. Nevertheless, the British pound is within a downward trend, unlike the euro. The trend line clearly indicates the boundaries below which the trend remains intact. This week, important labor market reports are scheduled to be released in the U.S., originally set for publication last Friday. Therefore, the dollar may well continue its winning streak.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, a buy signal was generated on Friday. Early in the Asian trading session, the price surpassed the 1.3529-1.3543 range, and by the start of the European session, it had moved only a couple of pips away from the point of formation. Therefore, beginner traders could open long positions based on a clear and unambiguous signal. For the rest of the day, the price rose only.

How to Trade on Monday:

The GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend on the hourly timeframe. There are no global foundations for the medium-term growth of the dollar, so in 2026, we expect the continuation of the global upward trend from 2025, which could drive the pair to a low of 1.4000. The situation has not favored the British currency over the past week, but in our view, this is just a temporary pause.

On Monday, beginner traders may consider short positions if the pair bounces from the 1.3643-1.3652 area, targeting 1.3529-1.3534. A consolidation above the area of 1.3643-1.3652 will allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.3741-1.3751.

On the 5-minute timeframe, current levels to consider include 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3365, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3741-1.3751, 1.3814-1.3832, 1.3891-1.3912, and 1.3975.

On Monday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the UK or the U.S. Therefore, it is likely we will see low volatility and dull movements throughout the day.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.