See also
17.09.2026 06:54 AMBitcoin has traded in a sideways channel for three weeks. Remember that Bitcoin often pauses within strong trends and then, even without a pronounced correction, produces a new powerful move. Thus Bitcoin's current inability to continue moving upward does not mean the local "north impulse" has ended. However, that impulse is local. On the daily timeframe, "digital gold" is clearly within a sideways channel. Currently, Bitcoin sits near the upper boundary of that channel. That implies a deviation may form with liquidity taken from the previous high or at least a simple rejection. In any case, the downtrend remains unbroken, as shown on the daily and weekly timeframes. On the 4-hour timeframe,, price has moved down to the lower boundary of the sideways channel. Hence, a bullish deviation near that border, followed by a return to the upper boundary, is possible.
Last night the Federal Reserve's decision was announced, and the crypto market's reaction was as surprising as the FX reaction. Recall the Fed delivered the expected 25-bp hike, which is generally bad news for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. But the Fed didn't stop at a single move: Kevin Warsh effectively signaled further tightening, and the dot plot showed a hawkish shift among FOMC members. In other words, the Fed is committed to fighting high inflation, and one September increase will not be the last. That outlook is not encouraging for Bitcoin. Yet the crypto market barely reacted to the Fed's outcome yesterday — which is surprising given the hawkish tilt. Because of that lack of reaction, technical structure is back in focus. The technical picture allows for a modest upside due to a potential deviation on the 4-hour timeframe.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues forming a downtrend and has entered a flat phase. The trend structure is identified as downward, and the CHOCH line sits at $82,800, where the last LH (Lower High) formed. Only above that level can the downtrend be considered complete. For most of 2026, "digital gold" has traded between $60,000 and $82,500, meaning price could take liquidity from the last LH and start a new move toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel.
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is also clearly flat and has twice removed sell-side liquidity, dropping to the channel's lower boundary, as we forecast. A deviation formed near the channel's lower boundary, suggesting a rise back to the upper boundary. As long as price remains within the $75,600–81,200 channel, we advise traders to trade only from the channel boundaries. Internal patterns currently do not matter.
Bitcoin continues forming a downtrend despite the strong mid-August rally. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although that level has effectively already been worked off. We do not believe the downtrend is finished. The recent rise of the top cryptocurrency only weakly resembles a correction, which is not a sufficient argument to open long positions. Liquidity could be taken from the $82,850 high, which may provoke a new leg down. On the 4-hour timeframe, a rebound may start in the near term with targets at $78,400 and $81,200, since a deviation formed near the lower boundary of the sideways channel.
CHOCH – change of trend structure.
Liquidity – liquidity, Stop Losses, pending orders that market-makers use to accumulate positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap. A price area of inefficiency. Price passes through these areas quickly, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, price doesn't react; it impulsively breaks it and then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order block. The candle where a market-maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.
