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IMF remains on high alert despite US‑Iran preliminary peace deal

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said it will continue to operate in a heightened state of readiness because of the long‑term economic fallout from the war in the Middle East. The warning came even amid positive reports of a preliminary agreement between Washington and Tehran that allowed shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz to be unblocked. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva emphasized that, despite the reopening of the waterway, a full restoration of global energy supplies and logistics chains will take significant time. The Strait of Hormuz remained fully closed for more than three months from the start of the armed conflict, which was provoked by US and Israeli strikes.

According to Georgieva, a key factor that helped the global system mitigate the effects of the severe energy shock in recent months was unprecedented technological progress. Large‑scale investments in AI and the construction of data center infrastructure have been a powerful driver of business activity. The primary beneficiaries of the current global technology cycle are the US and major Asian economies, which have recorded a sharp rise in high‑tech exports. However, most countries have not yet felt a direct productivity boost from AI, creating a risk of widening economic divergence between nations.

At the same time, the IMF continues to coordinate support programs for the most vulnerable economies hit by the sharp spike in fuel prices. Bangladesh has already requested the launch of a new emergency stabilization program, and Ethiopia has formally asked to defer scheduled financing tranches for the current year to cover its budget shortfall. Georgieva concluded that, at this stage, most IMF member countries are coping with the shock on their own and need not direct loans but clear and candid macroeconomic guidance to adapt to the new reality.

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