Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 157.90 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. The second test at 157.90 occurred while the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing the implementation of Scenario No. 2, which called for selling the dollar, resulting in a 25-pip decline in the pair.

The yen is managing the pressure it has been under lately. Even statements from Neel Kashkari indicating that the Fed may forego cutting the key interest rate this year did not mark a turning point for the USD/JPY pair. Many market participants remain cautious about currency interventions if the yen continues to decline and are hesitant to buy the dollar at current highs. This caution is explained by recent history, where repeated statements followed by actions from Japanese regulators demonstrated a willingness to defend the national currency against excessive devaluation.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point reaches around 157.80 (green line on the chart), with a target at 158.25 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 158.25, I plan to exit my long positions and also sell back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.49 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to opposite levels of 157.80 and 158.25 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.49 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.04 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to drop.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.80 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to opposite levels of 157.49 and 157.04 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.